Since June 10 the S&P 500 has alone added than 7%, including a 1.9% abatement on Friday, which pushed the basis beneath its 200-day average. This anniversary a billow of absolute abstracts could could cause markets to about-face direction, but if account disappoints markets could extend their contempo declines.

As of Sunday evening, Dow and S&P

500 futures were pointing north, and WTI awkward was up hardly to $59.91 per barrel.

The anniversary begins boring with no account Monday morning and alone the account account in the afternoon, but the week’s highlight, Retail Sales, is acquaint an hour afore the aperture alarm on Tuesday. Other highlights cover PPI and CPI, Automated Production, and account from the latest FOMC statement.

In Real Estate, the aloft account will be Friday’s Housing Starts report, but don’t get too excited: analysts are assured architecture projects to abide at low levels.

Key Releases this Week:

Monday:

2pm ― Even with three months larboard in the budgetary year, the Budget Account for June will beforehand the anniversary arrears accomplished the $1 abundance mark. Analysts apprehend the account arrears to be $97 billion, a aloft adverse to the $33 billion surplus in June 2008. In the antecedent address for May, the arrears created a almanac for the ages with a $189.7 billion deficit, blame the anniversary arrears to $991.9 billion.

The address isn’t accepted to agitate markets, but reminders that the anniversary arrears will be $1.8 abundance can’t accept abundant of a absolute effect.

Tuesday:

8:30 ― Retail Sales for June are accepted to echo May’s achievement with addition 0.5% increase. With auto sales excluded, analysts attending for a 0.6% advance.

Analysts at IHS Global Insight say the acceleration is mostly a absorption of ascent gas prices. “June retail sales will jump 0.5%, but about all of this accretion will be due to surging gasoline prices, as alternation abundance and auto sales declined,” they said in a applicant note.

Comments from Deutsche Coffer analysts are similar. “Recall that the antecedent address was additional essentially by surging gasoline sales —ex gas retail sales rose just +0.2% m/m, and a lot of arbitrary categories acquaint declines,” they wrote. “If customer affect is faltering—probably as a aftereffect of advancing action bazaar losses—then retail action could abatement in response.”

Ellen Zentner, arch economist at BTMU, expects alone a 0.3% beforehand in the ages (+0.4% ex-autos), and searching advanced she reminded others that burning won’t acknowledgment to its pre-recession levels.

“When sales beforehand does breach aback into the black, it will be at a new akin that matches the college accumulation amount and little use of credit,” she said in a applicant note. “Saving and paying down debt accept become the new mantra for households and it will be reflected in their spending habits for years to come.”

8:30 ― The Producer Amount Basis has been airy in contempo months so it’s no abruptness that expectations are all over the map this month. The average anticipation looks for a 0.8% access in June prices, with expectations alignment from +0.1% to +1.2%. Last ages the PPI saw a 0.2% gain, architecture on a 0.3% accretion in April.

The average anticipation for amount PPI (minus aliment & energy) is +0.1%, with forecasts alignment from -0.2% to +0.7%. In May the amount PPI fell 0.1%.

Forecasters from IHS Global Insight agenda that the basis is appear aboriginal this month, “so the June address should abduction about all of oil's contempo countdown but none of the after decline.” The attending for the all-items basis to beforehand 1.1% in the ages due to a 20% billow in gasoline prices.

“Although article costs accept risen, accomplished appurtenances producers cannot beforehand through amount increases with appeal so weak,” they added.

10:00 ― All analysts accede that Business Inventories will see their 9th after account bead in May. Afterward a 1.1% dip in April. the accord looks for a 0.8% abatement in May, with forecasts alignment from -0.7% to -1.2%.

Cuts to overhang beggarly businesses aren’t assured a backlash in burning any time soon, but it aswell helps the abridgement set up for a V-shaped rebound.

The analysis administration at BBVA adds: “This strong abridgement in inventories could in fact accept a absolute aftereffect on the economy because already inventories ability a assertive threshold, we could see an uptick in automated assembly as companies charge to advance a accurate akin in adjustment to do business.”

Wednesday:

8:30 ― After a amiable 0.1% access in the Consumer Amount Basis for May, analysts attending for a 0.7% accretion in June, attributable to a bound in activity prices. When activity and aliment prices are afar in the CPI core, the accretion should just be 0.1%.

With appeal still anemic about the apple and unemployment top at home, the threat of aggrandizement charcoal feeble. Yet the Federal Reserve and Treasury haven’t signaled a bright avenue strategy, so apropos for approaching aggrandizement remain.

8:30 ― The Empire State Accomplishment survey is the aboriginal bounded attending appear anniversary month. The accord looks for some advance from -9.4 to -4.5 in July, advertence all-embracing abbreviating for the 15th beeline month.

9:15 ― Industrial Assembly shrank 1.1% in May and should abatement addition 0.7% in June, according to the accord forecast. Admitting IP accounts for beneath than one-fifth of the economy, markets watch this address carefully as a arch indicator of area the abridgement is heading.

“We apprehend assembly to bead about 0.5%, with accomplishment down 0.4% and almost air-conditioned acclimate black account output,” said Ian Shepherdson, arch US economist at HFE, in a applicant note. “Capacity use should abatement to yet addition new low of just 68.0%.”

2pm ― The FOMC meeting three weeks ago maintained the cachet quo so the account could be added of the same, but analysts will attending for any comments on a abeyant avenue action afterward massive government action into banking markets and the abridgement ― comments that were bare in the action statement, black those investors anxious with anticlimax or hyper-inflation.

Thursday:

8:30 ― Last week’s Jobless Claims saw antecedent filings breach a 22-week trend aloft the 600k level. Unfortunately, this week’s address may not affirm whether that was alone a bleep due to the four-day anniversary week, as July is accepted to be a airy aeon for the action market, and auto shutdowns beforehand this year are askew the data.

10:00 ― On the heels of the Empire State survey, the Philadelphia Fed Analysis is aswell accepted to address alone slight abasement in the month. The average anticipation looks for -5.0 account in July, but some analysts attending for beforehand in the month.

Friday:

8:30 ― It’s a adage that the abridgement won’t accretion until the apartment bazaar recovers. Unfortunately, the Housing Starts report is accepted to address that architecture charcoal anemic ― no abruptness accustomed that account overhang is already boring prices down. The anniversary clip of architecture is set to abatement moderately to 530k, afterward a 17.2% backlash in May.

“Even admitting the abatement in new home sales has stabilized, the bazaar has not accomplished the aforementioned renewed appeal as that of absolute homes because the amount of a new home is not as adjustable as that of an absolute one,” agenda analysts at BBVA. “Once prices for absolute homes balance and the balance account is depleted, the bazaar for new homes could aces up afresh and we will see an access in apartment starts.”

In the media:

Swiss Resisting Calls from US to Give Banking Information

UBS AG and the governments of the U.S. and Switzerland are abysmal in talks to achieve a aloft tax-evasion case that could crave the Swiss coffer to acknowledge some -- but not all -- of the 52,000 or so account-holder names the U.S. has sought, according to humans accustomed with the matter. ― WSJ

Analysts Believe Goldman Earned $2bn in Q2:

Up and down Wall Street, analysts and traders are active that Goldman, which alone afresh paid aback its government bailout money, will address blast profits from trading on Tuesday. . . Goldman Sachs is action on the markets, but the markets are aswell action on Goldman: Its allotment amount has soared 68 percent this year, closing at $141.87 on Friday. . . . The banal is still able-bodied off its almanac top of $250.70, accomplished in 2007. In the aboriginal quarter, it acquaint profits of $1.66 billion. Now, the additional division looks even better. ― NYT

JP Morgan will advertise balance on Thursday while Coffer of America and Citi will advertise on Friday.